REMEMBERING JUNE 1, 2011

Four years ago, a devastating tornado ripped through parts of south-central Massachusetts.

The tornado impacted the cities and towns of Westfield, West Springfield, Springfield, East Longmeadow, Ludlow, Palmer, Wilbraham, Monson, Brimfield, Sturbridge, Southbridge, and Charlton.

The tornado grew to one-half mile wide. Estimated winds peaked at 160 mph. It stayed on the ground for 39 miles. Over $100 million in damage resulted from the tornado. Unfortunately, three people died and dozens more were injured. 

Even four years later, we are still reminded of the tornado. Satellite images bear the scar that was left behind in the damage path. 

We look back and remember all of those who were affected by the tornado.

 MATT HOENIG - 1:36 PM

STILL WARM...FOR NOW

Click on Image to View Larger Version

Even though it was a bit cooler than it was yesterday for most locations, it was another very mild May afternoon. High temperatures reached the lower 80s inland, while sea breezes held the coast in the lower 70s. Even though we have been experiencing this warmth, I should remind you that we have a very chilly body of water just to our east. The water temperature is only in the upper 40s in the Gulf of Maine. The ocean wind brought the temperature all the way down to 59 at Logan Airport!

The next few days, however, will continue the warm trend. Sea breezes may knock the temp down to near 60 tomorrow evening at the immediate coast, but otherwise tomorrow will reach the low to mid 70s in many locations. 

Temperatures across the region will continue to climb into the weekend. A disturbance will pass well to our north on Sunday. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible somewhere in the forecast area on Sunday. It does not look like a widespread event, but do keep an "eye to the sky" in the afternoon especially if you have any outdoor activities planned for mom.

Beyond that is where things get tricky...

There is a significant variation in computer models to start next week. To make it easier, I will describe, in detail, the two scenarios that we could possibly experience.

Scenario 1: The warmer solution. The trend of warm weather continue as a big ridge of high pressure is parked over the eastern seaboard. As a front approaches from the west, temperatures into the afternoon will soar well into the 80s. Scattered thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon. Some of these storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.

Scenario 2: The water temperature off our coastline is only about 49 degrees. A strong backdoor cold front could invade the region sometime on Monday. Afternoon temps may struggle to reach 60 at the coast, while 80s are possible far inland. By Tuesday, much of the region is cooler. More cloud cover is likely with this scenario, as well as the chance for showers or even a thunderstorm. 

I took a middle ground on the 7 day forecast graphic. I believe that both of the above scenarios are possible, so check back for updates as we get closer to the event.

 MATT HOENIG - 7:25 PM

WARM TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

Wow, it's been a while since I've updated this!

...And since I've last updated this, about 10" of snow has melted and the grass and trees have started to come to life. But we are yet to see an extended period of warm temperatures and sunshine.

Until now.

Click on Image to View Larger Version

No, your eyes are not deceiving you. At least away from the coastline, temperatures look to warm up substantially into the weekend. The coast will get into the warm weather starting Sunday and should last through Tuesday. This means that your flowers and trees around your house will bloom and it should really start to look like Spring around here by the middle of next week.

You may have noticed that, in my 7 day forecast, the last two days are in smaller boxes and contain less information. I do this to indicate some degree of uncertainty past the 5 day mark. This holds especially true for this forecast. Currently, there are indications that this forecast will hold up. But, as I mentioned in a previous post, Spring isn't always a nice season for us in New England. I'm going to at least leave the possibility of sea breezes or even a backdoor cold front in the extended outlook.

Make sure to check back for updates!

 MATT HOENIG - 4:46 PM

WINTER ROLLS ON

I love the winter, but even I'm starting to get sick of it. 

Good afternoon everyone! Well, what a beautiful January March day it was out there today! Crystal clear skies, high temperatures near 30, and NW winds 15-30 mph. In fact, many areas gusted even higher! Below is a graphic including some of the top wind gust reports over the past 24 hours.

Pair that with high temps 15-20 degrees below average, you have wind chills in the teens at times. Absolutely brutal for mid-March.

Unfortunately, there's no real end in sight. You can view my latest 7 day forecast on the sidebar to the right, which shows this abnormal cold continuing on. In an air mass like this, once you start bring precipitation into the picture, you have to start talking about snow. 

Yes, Friday is the first day of astronomical Spring. And yes, there is a chance of snow for much of the region, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A system will track well to the south of New England before turning a bit more northward on Friday. This should allow for much of the region to experience at least a light snowfall. 

Model Images (12z GFS) via AccuPro

I have a couple of takeaways from what I have looked at from the models this afternoon:

1. The system never really intensifies rapidly as it hits the waters of the Atlantic.

2. The storm system itself moves in rapidly and moves out rapidly. 

Both of these factors above indicate that we will not see a significant snowfall out of this storm. However, it does appear that we will have enough moisture in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere to prevent a "confinement" of the snow. In other words, the entire region will likely see at least a nuisance snow. 

Above are my general thoughts in term of snowfall. The heaviest amounts should fall across SE MA, Central and Northern RI, and Southern CT. 1-2" is likely for most of the region, while around 1" is expected into Northwestern New England and Cape Cod. Snow will likely mix with rain on Cape Cod at some point, keeping totals down there.

Snow should end Saturday morning, and afternoon high temperatures could reach the lower 40s. But right after that, more cold air invades the region. 

 MATT HOENIG - 6:11 PM

THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BREEZE

The First Day of Spring is coming! Just imagine the sun shining, the leaves growing, flowers blossoming, all while you're wearing shorts and enjoying a gentle afternoon breeze.

Sounds great, right? After all, we deserve it after the last few weeks of snow and record cold. If you live across the interior, you will experience this feeling soon enough. If you're thinking about this and you live near the coastline, not so fast!

The image above explains the phenomenon as to why the New England coastline can't enjoy warm Spring days as much as inland areas. The winter is obviously filled with snowstorms and cold temperatures. As a result, Sea Surface Temperatures (or SSTs, for short) cool during the season. As Spring starts, the ocean is still quite cold from the winter. Because the land heats up faster than the ocean each day, land temperatures can become significantly warmer than ocean temperatures. Cold air sinks, while warm air rises. The cooler, sinking air eventually invades the low levels of the atmosphere and protrudes inland, resulting in a sea breeze. 

Sea breezes typically occur on warm days with light winds. They can occur at almost any time of the year, however, they are most common from March until June. In order to prevent a sea breeze from occurring at the coast, one of the following conditions must be met: 

1. The air mass must already be cool. 

2. There must be a sustained land breeze in excess of 10-15 mph.

Note: Meteorology is not an exact science. As a result, sea breezes can occur when one of the above happens. At the same time, a warm air mass and light winds may not result in a sea breeze. 

Sea breezes are can being annoying to warm weather lovers, but they are not the only weather phenomena that we have to deal with...

Yes, this actually happened. In fact, Backdoor Cold Fronts are fairly common here in New England. 

Most of us are familiar with the term cold front. It is a frontal boundary that rushes out warm air and replaces it with cooler, drier air. Typically, cold fronts move from west to east. During a stretch of warm days during the Spring, a sharply cooler air mass can nudge itself down the New England coastline from Atlantic Canada. These divisions of air masses are called Backdoor Cold Fronts. 

Backdoor Cold Fronts typically create drastic differences in temperature in a small area. Look at the map above, for instance. On 5/27/14 at 3 pm, the temperature in Boston was 55 degrees. At the same time, just ~85 miles to the WSW, it was 83 degrees in Springfield! There have been backdoor cold fronts that create drastic differences between two towns! For example, Shrewsbury, MA can record a temperature of 63 degrees, while Worcester, MA can record a temperature of 86 degrees at the exact same moment. While uncommon, the previous example has happened and certainly can in the near future.

Another difference: Backdoor cold fronts typically push much farther inland than sea breezes do. Generally, sea breezes bring localized areas of cooler air, while backdoor cold fronts bring widespread areas of cool air.

Both sea breezes and backdoor cold fronts are just additional examples of the wacky and extreme weather patterns that we constantly experience in New England.

 MATT HOENIG - 8:47 PM